{
  "id": "ph-expat-cpi-reweighted",
  "title": "Philippine consumer prices under a declared retiree weight vector",
  "metric": "PSA commodity-group sub-indices reweighted to a declared foreign-retiree basket (2018 = 100)",
  "unit": "index (2018 = 100)",
  "kind": "index",
  "volatility": "annual",
  "direction_note": "this is NOT an official index — the sub-indices are the Philippine Statistics Authority's and are unaltered, the weights are ours and are not published, endorsed or reviewed by any statistics office",
  "publisher": "No Margin Left",
  "source": {
    "label": "Philippine Statistics Authority, CPI by commodity group (2018 = 100), annual averages, republished by Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas; reweighted by the author to a declared retiree expenditure vector. The price series is the PSA's. The weight vector is the author's.\n",
    "url": "https://www.bsp.gov.ph/Statistics/Prices/prices2018.xls"
  },
  "license": "CC BY 4.0",
  "license_url": "https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/",
  "attribution": "No Margin Left, \"Philippine consumer prices under a declared retiree weight vector\" (PSA commodity-group sub-indices reweighted to a declared foreign-retiree basket (2018 = 100)). CC BY 4.0. https://nomarginleft.com/data/ph-expat-cpi-reweighted.json",
  "canonical": "https://nomarginleft.com/data/ph-expat-cpi-reweighted.json",
  "csv": "https://nomarginleft.com/data/ph-expat-cpi-reweighted.csv",
  "retrieved": "2026-08-16",
  "stale": false,
  "observations": [
    {
      "date": "2018",
      "value": 100,
      "confidence": "triangulated",
      "checked": "2026-08-16",
      "note": "base year of both vectors. Official published All Items index for the same year, same base, 100.0."
    },
    {
      "date": "2019",
      "value": 102.63,
      "confidence": "triangulated",
      "checked": "2026-08-16",
      "note": "official published All Items index 102.38 — the only year of the window in which the reweighted basket runs ABOVE the headline."
    },
    {
      "date": "2020",
      "value": 104.81,
      "confidence": "triangulated",
      "checked": "2026-08-16",
      "note": "official 104.83. The two lines cross here and then separate for the rest of the window."
    },
    {
      "date": "2021",
      "value": 108.4,
      "confidence": "triangulated",
      "checked": "2026-08-16",
      "note": "official 108.94."
    },
    {
      "date": "2022",
      "value": 114.02,
      "confidence": "triangulated",
      "checked": "2026-08-16",
      "note": "official 115.28."
    },
    {
      "date": "2023",
      "value": 120.19,
      "confidence": "triangulated",
      "checked": "2026-08-16",
      "note": "official 122.17."
    },
    {
      "date": "2024",
      "value": 123.7,
      "confidence": "triangulated",
      "checked": "2026-08-16",
      "note": "official 126.10. The widest point of the divergence, 2.40 index points."
    },
    {
      "date": "2025",
      "value": 126.11,
      "confidence": "triangulated",
      "checked": "2026-08-16",
      "note": "Official 128.19. Terminal year of the window: the reweighted basket inflated 26.11 per cent across the seven years against the headline's 28.19 — 3.37 per cent a year against 3.61. The gap closes slightly from 2024 because Philippine food inflation collapsed to 1.2 per cent and the down-weight stopped helping.\n",
      "readings": [
        {
          "value": 126.11,
          "source": {
            "label": "Author reweight of PSA CPI commodity-group sub-indices (2018 = 100) under the declared retiree vector",
            "url": "https://www.bsp.gov.ph/Statistics/Prices/prices2018.xls"
          },
          "retrieved_via": "PSA commodity-group series via the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas statistics mirror, retrieved 2026-08-14"
        },
        {
          "value": 128.192,
          "source": {
            "label": "Philippine Statistics Authority, published All Items CPI (2018 = 100), annual average",
            "url": "https://www.bsp.gov.ph/Statistics/Prices/prices2018.xls"
          },
          "quote": "All Items 2025 = 128.19; annual inflation 1.7%",
          "retrieved_via": "same workbook, All Items row"
        },
        {
          "value": 162.31,
          "source": {
            "label": "World Bank World Development Indicators FP.CPI.TOTL, Philippines (2010 = 100)",
            "url": "https://api.worldbank.org/v2/country/PHL;THA/indicator/FP.CPI.TOTL?format=json&date=2018:2025"
          },
          "retrieved_via": "World Bank API, 2026-07-13 vintage"
        }
      ],
      "rationale": "The three readings are not rival measurements of one quantity and are kept together because each answers a different half of the question. 128.192 is the official published index and is the benchmark this ledger exists to be compared against, not a competitor to it. 162.31 is the same official series on the World Bank's 2010 base: rescaled onto the World Bank's 2018 value it gives 162.28 against 162.31 published, 0.03 index points apart, which is what establishes that the two bases are the same series and that the 2018 = 100 base used throughout is sound. 126.11 resolves because it is the metric this ledger is defined as — the official sub-indices under the declared retiree vector — and because the official vector run through the identical arithmetic returns the published headline to 0.01 index points, so the difference between 126.11 and 128.19 is the weights and nothing else.\n"
    }
  ],
  "corrections": []
}