{
  "id": "th-expat-cpi-reweighted",
  "title": "Thai consumer prices under a declared retiree weight vector",
  "metric": "Official Thai COICOP division indices reweighted to a declared foreign-retiree basket (2018 = 100)",
  "unit": "index (2018 = 100)",
  "kind": "index",
  "volatility": "annual",
  "direction_note": "this is NOT an official index — the division indices are the Thai authorities' as carried by the IMF and are unaltered, the weights are ours and are not published, endorsed or reviewed by any statistics office",
  "publisher": "No Margin Left",
  "source": {
    "label": "IMF Consumer Price Index dataset, COICOP 1999 divisions for Thailand, annual, sourced by the IMF from country authorities; rebased to 2018 = 100 from the IMF's 2023 common reference and reweighted by the author to a declared retiree expenditure vector. The division indices are the authorities'. The weight vector is the author's.\n",
    "url": "https://api.imf.org/external/sdmx/2.1/data/CPI/THA....A?startPeriod=2017&endPeriod=2025&detail=full"
  },
  "license": "CC BY 4.0",
  "license_url": "https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/",
  "attribution": "No Margin Left, \"Thai consumer prices under a declared retiree weight vector\" (Official Thai COICOP division indices reweighted to a declared foreign-retiree basket (2018 = 100)). CC BY 4.0. https://nomarginleft.com/data/th-expat-cpi-reweighted.json",
  "canonical": "https://nomarginleft.com/data/th-expat-cpi-reweighted.json",
  "csv": "https://nomarginleft.com/data/th-expat-cpi-reweighted.csv",
  "retrieved": "2026-08-16",
  "stale": false,
  "observations": [
    {
      "date": "2018",
      "value": 100,
      "confidence": "triangulated",
      "checked": "2026-08-16",
      "note": "base year of both lines. Official published Thai headline index for the same year, same base, 100.0."
    },
    {
      "date": "2019",
      "value": 100.72,
      "confidence": "triangulated",
      "checked": "2026-08-16",
      "note": "official 100.71 — the two lines are indistinguishable in the first year."
    },
    {
      "date": "2020",
      "value": 100.28,
      "confidence": "triangulated",
      "checked": "2026-08-16",
      "note": "official 99.85. The pandemic year, and the only one in which the reweighted basket runs above the headline by a visible margin."
    },
    {
      "date": "2021",
      "value": 100.16,
      "confidence": "triangulated",
      "checked": "2026-08-16",
      "note": "official 101.08."
    },
    {
      "date": "2022",
      "value": 104.88,
      "confidence": "triangulated",
      "checked": "2026-08-16",
      "note": "official 107.22. The energy shock, and where the divergence opens."
    },
    {
      "date": "2023",
      "value": 106.34,
      "confidence": "triangulated",
      "checked": "2026-08-16",
      "note": "official 108.54."
    },
    {
      "date": "2024",
      "value": 106.55,
      "confidence": "triangulated",
      "checked": "2026-08-16",
      "note": "official 108.97."
    },
    {
      "date": "2025",
      "value": 106.44,
      "confidence": "triangulated",
      "checked": "2026-08-16",
      "note": "Official 108.83. Terminal year: the reweighted basket inflated 6.44 per cent across the seven years against the published 8.83 — a divergence of 2.39 percentage points, wider than the Philippine one, in the same direction, and resting on a spliced series with no official vector to check it against.\n",
      "readings": [
        {
          "value": 106.44,
          "source": {
            "label": "Author reweight of the seven observed Thai COICOP divisions under the declared retiree vector, renormalised",
            "url": "https://api.imf.org/external/sdmx/2.1/data/CPI/THA....A?startPeriod=2017&endPeriod=2025&detail=full"
          },
          "retrieved_via": "IMF SDMX 2.1 endpoint, retrieved 2026-08-14"
        },
        {
          "value": 108.83,
          "source": {
            "label": "Thai headline all-items CPI (COICOP_1999=_T) as carried by the IMF, rebased to 2018 = 100",
            "url": "https://api.imf.org/external/sdmx/2.1/data/CPI/THA....A?startPeriod=2017&endPeriod=2025&detail=full"
          },
          "quote": "COMMON_REFERENCE_PERIOD=2023A; OVERLAP=OL on both IX and SRP_IX",
          "retrieved_via": "same SDMX response, series attributes re-read directly from the Series element"
        },
        {
          "value": 122.4,
          "source": {
            "label": "World Bank World Development Indicators FP.CPI.TOTL, Thailand (2010 = 100)",
            "url": "https://api.worldbank.org/v2/country/PHL;THA/indicator/FP.CPI.TOTL?format=json&date=2018:2025"
          },
          "retrieved_via": "World Bank API, 2026-07-13 vintage"
        }
      ],
      "rationale": "108.83 is the published benchmark this ledger exists to be compared against, not a rival measurement of it; 122.40 is the same official Thai headline on the World Bank's 2010 base, where 2018 to 2025 is +8.83 per cent — identical to the IMF-carried figure and therefore confirming that the rebasing to 2018 = 100 is faithful. 106.44 resolves because it is the metric this ledger is defined as. It is resolved with a warning that has no Philippine equivalent: the completeness check could not be run, because no official Thai weight vector was obtained, so if the seven observed divisions do not exhaust the Thai basket the divergence is mis-stated by an amount this file cannot bound.\n"
    }
  ],
  "corrections": []
}